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Sunday, October 25, 2009

Discover Some Magic To Beat The Forex: The Elliott Wave Theory For Forex Markets

One of the best known and least understood theories of technical analysis in forex trading is the Elliot Wave Theory. Developed in the 1920s by Ralph Nelson Elliot as a method of predicting trends in the stock market, the Elliot Wave theory applies fractal mathematics to movements in the market to make predictions based on crowd behavior. In its essence, the Elliot Wave theory states that the market – in this case, the forex market – moves in a series of 5 swings upward and 3 swings back down, repeated perpetually. But if it were that simple, everyone would be making a killing by catching the wave and riding it until just before it crashes on the shore. Obviously, there’s a lot more to it.
One of the things that makes riding the Elliot Wave so tricky is timing – of all the major wave theories, it’s the only one that doesn’t put a time limit on the reactions and rebounds of the market. A single In fact, the theories of fractal mathematics makes it clear that there are multiple waves within waves within waves. Interpreting the data and finding the right curves and crests is a tricky process, which gives rise to the contention that you can put 20 experts on the Elliot Wave theory in one room and they will never reach an agreement on which way a stock – or in this case, a currency – is headed.
Elliot Wave Basics
• Every action is followed by a reaction.It’s a standard rule of physics that applies to the crowd behavior on which the Elliot Wave theory is based. If prices drop, people will buy. When people buy, the demand increases and supply decreases driving prices back up. Nearly every system that uses trend analysis to predict the movements of the currency market is based on determining when those actions will cause reactions that make a trade profitable.
• There are five waves in the direction of the main trend followed by three corrective waves (a "5-3" move).The Elliot Wave theory is that market activity can be predicted as a series of five waves that move in one direction (the trend) followed by three ‘corrective’ waves that move the market back toward its starting point.
And here’s where the theory begins to get truly complex. Like the mirror reflecting a • A 5-3 move completes a cycle. mirror that reflects a mirror that reflects a mirror, the each 5-3 wave is not only complete in itself, it is a superset of a smaller series of waves, and a subset of a larger set of 5-3 waves – the next principle.
• This 5-3 move then becomes two subdivisions of the next higher 5-3 wave.In Elliot Wave notation, the 5 waves that fit the trend are labeled 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 (impulses). The three correcting waves are called a, b and c (corrections). Each of these waves is made up of a 5-3 series of waves, and each of those is made up of a 5-3 series of waves. The 5-3 cycle that you’re studying is an impulse and correction in the next ascending 5-3 series.

Learn Forex - How To Make Money Trading Forex, The Trade Process

On the forex market we are trading currencies, exchanging a currency for another. So we buy a currency hoping its value will increase compared to the value of the one we are selling. Yes, we, at the same time, buying a currency and selling another currency. An example may be a little more understandable.
We have dollars and want to buy euros. The pair traded here is EUR/USD, and the exchange rate is 1.25. You can read it like this : 1 euro equals 1.25 dollar. We hope that the euro value will be higher so that later we will buy more dollar. The exchange rate increase to 1.35, in this case we bought 1 euro using 1.25 dollar, and it now equals to 1.35 dollar. So we exchange our 1 euro back into dollars and now have 1.35.
We bought 1 euro for $1.25 and sell it back for $1.35, we made a 10 cents profit. Of course on the forex market you will not buy only one euro, this will be few hundreds or thousands, depending on your budget and the leverage offered by the broker.
Exchange rates are always moving. When I say that you "hope" the value will increase, many factors can be used to predict the rate, based on technical or fundamental analysis. This is not the topic of this article so let's have another example of a selling trade.
We take the same pair (EUR/USD) as above starting with the same exchange rate (1.25). We want to sell euros so we can buy it later at a lower price. Here we hope, or know that the value of the euro will depreciate. We sell one euro for $1.25. The exchange rate drops to 1.15. That means that now we only need 1.15 to buy our euro back. We exchange our dollars back into euros and again, make a 10 cents profit.
When you buy or sell, you always buy or sell the base currecy. The base currency is the first one in the pair. In the pair EUR/USD, the base currency is the euro and the USD is called the quote currency. When you decide to buy, you buy euro and sell dollars. When you decide to sell, you sell euros and buy dollars.
Think that you always need to exchange something two times. If you buy something and want to make a profit from it, you would prefer to sell it at a higher price. And so, if you are selling something that you will need to buy again, you would prefer to have it at a lower price.